1) The World Cup attracts worldwide interest in a way that American sports rarely do. The world’s athletic passion is soccer. The NBA does a good job in branding internationally, however, only a few of our most popular professional sports are celebrated as fervently as soccer.

2) This contest ignites American patriotism. It features our best athletes in international competition. It’s been a troubled time in our country and this is an event that can unite a wide audience chanting “USA,USA”.

3) Soccer allows viewers or spectators a complete ability to see a competitor’s face and body. Most sports have helmets or hats obscuring facial features. This is an opportunity to completely identify and grow close to the team and its’ athletes.

4) This is a particularly athletic and charming group of young athletes. The sheer passion they play with and their youthful excitement is contagious. Outside of Megan Rapinoe’s exchange with President Trump, there is no controversy or off-field issues surrounding these fresh-faced appealing athletes.

5) Females are the more dominant decision makers on purchases for most households. They are an especially valued demographic group that advertisers target. These games are a great way for mothers and daughters to bond. Millions of young girls can identify with the team and the players as well as think about pursuing the sport of soccer in their own lives.

These players, especially Alex Morgan and Megan Rapinoe, will get the benefit of the celebrity-making machine in this country. Alex Morgan has already been the cover girl for a variety of magazines and had a robust string of endorsements. This is an opportunity to transcend the narrower genre of hardcore soccer fans to become household names. The biggest stars will do early morning and late night talk shows. They will be highlighted on social media. They will be the subject of endless magazine and newspaper stories. They will probably compete in a barnstorming tour of contests across the country. There will be endorsements running on television, social media and print. This branding of the team and players offers endless possibilities.

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111 million people watched the game itself last year. Without the kneeling controversy, ratings are up and the number will be much higher. The MVP and other stars who perform well in the game itself will have the opportunity to follow the game in the celebrity-making machine that has developed in the recent past. The idea of Celebrity fascinates Americans. A star player will be invited on the morning shows, late night talk shows, entertainment awards presentations, and will be featured on magazine covers. This has a crossover effect on brand-building.

When Cowboy QB Troy Aikman entered the Rose Bowl in 1993 to play the Bills in the Super Bowl, he was perceived as a very good quarterback and a favorite of Cowboy fans. After being selected as MVP, he instantly vaulted to “TROY AIKMAN SUPERSTAR” status. He had a good sense of humor, was handsome and he appeared on all three Monday morning national shows, the Tonight show, and it set the stage for numerous marketing opportunities. He won two more Super Bowls, and the effect was so dynamic that he continues to have endorsements 25 years later.

When 49er Quarterback Steve Young was MVP of 1994, he came back on the field post-game and did 25 interviews with different local news stations. He is still a household name. The explosion of the internet, websites, television networks, talk radio, that has occurred in the twenty-five years since amplifies this effect. Whether it is Tom Brady or Jared Goff, the quarterback is the chief beneficiary. Get ready for some new national figures, the Super Bowl is coming.

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Teams report to training camp in late July. They endure camp and then compete in four preseason games prior to the start of the 16-game regular season. Wild-card teams play two playoff games to reach the Conference Championships, whereas higher-seeded teams have to win only once to reach that round. On Sunday night, the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots played 60 minutes and were tied. And the right to determine who plays in the most important game of the year was essentially decided by a coin flip.

Coin flips at the beginning of a game simply decide who kicks and who receives the initial kick-off. The other team then receives the ball first in the second half, so each team gets to start a half with the ball. This is not a totally critical advantage. But if the team winning the coin flip in an overtime game receives the kick and scores a touchdown, they win. The other team never gets a chance to control the ball. A coin flip thus deprives the losing team of the right to compete at all in that extra time. With all that is on the line, that is one nonsensical rule. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady led his team on a masterfully executing scoring drive. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes never got a chance to answer. Take nothing away from the fact that the Patriots scored to take the lead, but the Chiefs should have gotten the opportunity to match or lose.

No one knows what would have happened had the coin flip gone to the Chiefs or had the rules permitted the Chiefs a chance to tie. The result well could have been the same. But these were games to determine the two best teams in the NFL, and a lucky coin flip should not be the deciding factor. There is no rational basis for allowing the vagaries of chance to play such a critical role in a contest for the biggest prize in the NFL.

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1.) Salary Cap Forces Discarding of Players — The limitations on cap dollars force winning teams to discard the fruits of superior scouting and coaching. The cap does not allow all five offensive linemen to make top dollars. Super Bowl victors face the dismaying prospect of losing players to free agency that they would prefer to keep. Teams have to figure out who is irreplaceable and who they can survive without.

2.) SB Winning Players Are Desired and Overvalued in Free Agency — Other teams are looking for experienced winners that bring that aura to their locker rooms. Free agency involves competitive bidding, and the players who have just won end up getting contracts in free agency that are hard for the incumbent team to match. There is a Super Bowl premium often attached to these players which results in premium contracts.

3.) Injuries — Paying stars their full value means that most rosters are filled with large numbers of backups that are playing for the minimum. These can be undrafted free agents, rookies and aging veterans. When an A+ level offensive tackle is lost to injury, his backup may be a B- type player. Therefore injuries wreak havoc with quality of play.

4.) Offseason Distractions — Unless players on Super Bowl teams are grounded and committed to continuing the workout and practice regimen that allowed them to play so well, they can be distracted by the multiple invitations for events, golf tournaments and endorsements. The parable of the grasshopper and the ant applies. The ant prepares for the upcoming winter and the grasshopper simply parties–and the grasshopper suffers through the winter. Having achieved the penultimate victory in Pro football, a player needs to stay just as hungry and driven for the future.

5.) Teams Are Especially Motivated to Beat the SB Champ — Every game that a Super Bowl winning team plays the following season is a motivating event for the other team. Opposing teams put special energy into knocking off the Super Bowl champs. There is no sneaking up on opponents or being overlooked.

All of these factors make the extraordinary success of the Patriots all that more impressive. The system is stacked against them, and still, they triumph. It will be interesting to watch the Patriots try and defy history again.

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The NCAA has also recently implemented a new database called the transfer portal. Once a player is entered into the transfer portal with the intent to transfer to another school, other programs can contact that particular player in the hopes of bringing that player to their respective program. So far after the National Championship game, there have been a few big name players that have decided to transfer. Former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts announced his decision to transfer to Oklahoma, where he will be eligible to play right away, as the starting quarterback for the Sooners. As a result of this move, Oklahoma’s backup quarterback at the time, Austin Kendall, decided that he wanted to transfer to West Virginia because he wouldn’t see playing time. Initially, Oklahoma Head Coach Lincoln Riley, who did not want to let Kendall transfer to another team in the Big 12, blocked this prospective move. However, Riley gave in after a heavy pushback from the court of public opinion, and Kendall transferred to West Virginia, becoming immediately eligible to play for the Mountaineers. In another similar scenario, Georgia backup quarterback Justin Fields, a former 5-star recruit, elected to transfer to Ohio State after the college football season. Fields applied to receive a waiver from the NCAA to be eligible immediately for the Buckeyes, which was granted in early February. After confirmation that Fields was transferring to Ohio State, Buckeyes QB Tate Martell decided to transfer to Miami, in a move that could see him become the starting QB for the Hurricanes. Martell himself also applied for a waiver from the NCAA, requesting immediate eligibility to play. This request was granted yesterday by the NCAA, allowing Tate Martell to play in the upcoming college football season at Miami, without having to sit out for a year. It’s unclear what Martell cited in his request for immediate eligibility, but it is evident that the NCAA is granting these waivers at a much higher rate than in the past.

With these particular moves being made, some are now questioning whether or not this may lead college football down a path towards free agency. This question is even more important in considering the rising amount of immediate eligibility waivers that the NCAA is granting to student-athletes. By doing this, the NCAA is currently setting a precedent for players that desire to transfer. Now, who’s to say that a player won’t decide to transfer if they lose a starting job? It’s a question worth asking, especially if there’s a high chance that this player could be immediately eligible at another school where they would start. While student-athletes do not receive the level of compensation that professionals receive, the transfer portal is something that could serve as a facilitator of free agency in college sports. When in the portal, other schools can court these athletes, in attempting to get them to commit to their program. Besides not compensating these athletes to come play for their respective programs, how is this method much different than that of free agency in professional sports? With many of these student-athletes hoping to play at the next level, playing time is vital, as it ultimately determines their future. Now that these new rules are in place, college football is another step closer to having a free agent market exist.

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The same is true of the free agents themselves. In meeting with a client, we would carefully chart which franchises were most desirable for that player far in advance. The player would list priorities like: 1) Short term economic gain 2) Long term financial security 3) Geographical location 4) Family considerations 5) Endorsements 6) Winning 7) Quality of coaching 8) System or scheme 9) Whether they were starting 10) Facilities. In 1993 Safety Tim McDonald of the Arizona Cardinals had options as part of the very first class of NFL Free Agents. When he did an internal inventory, he prioritized two goals. One was winning because the Cardinals had not fared well and the second was being closer to his family in Fresno, California. Multiple teams were interested. Towards the end of the process the San Francisco 49ers, a winning team, expressed interest. It fulfilled the winning priority and was the closest team to Fresno. So Tim was able to tell me “get the best deal you can from the 49ers”. This was a different approach than pitting the teams against each other and signing with the highest bidder. But Tim had clarity as to how to use the process to produce ultimate fulfilment. Based on these considerations a player has a rational basis for decision-making that does not lead to confusion facing multiple options. The enemy is cognitive dissonance, which causes stress in decision-making filled with too many considerations. This, in turn, causes a player to swing back and forth as they eventually just make a choice to relieve the stress.

The true superstars of the NFL rarely are available in free agency. Teams either sign them far in advance of their freedom to long-term extensions, or they are tagged and franchise restricted. The auction bidding dynamic of free agency causes B+ talent players to get A+ contracts. Because the only other mechanisms to enhance a roster are the NFL Draft or trades, free agency creates free market competition that drives up prices. Free agency is the only process that allows players the benefit of multiple teams bidding for their services. It can be an exhilarating process.

Free agency can also be stressful for players. Athletes tend to like structure and certainty in their employment. They are drafted by teams initially and flourish with itineraries as well as calendars that make clear how they are to spend their time. Free agency can create uncertainty and a lack of clear structure until a signing occurs. Teams tend to spend their premium dollars on their top prioritized players and sign them rapidly in the first week or so. This creates a musical chairs effect where the best players find their new homes quickly. As time goes on, the pace of signings slows precipitously and some players will have a difficult time finding a remaining chair. NFL Teams have also adopted a rapid signing pace to avoid losing out on all their top choices. Michael Huyghue who was President of the Jacksonville Jaguars, pioneered this approach when he realized that allowing players to make multiple visits over a long period of time could result in a team being turned down by multiple players. He would invite a player to come to Jacksonville and make a premium contract offer on that visit. But the player would be told he had to accept while he was in town.

Be sure to keep your eye on how the highest quality franchises and best-prepared players navigate this process smoothly in the next week, while other teams and players flounder in this process.

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Major networks spend millions of dollars developing and testing which dramatic, comedic, reality and special programming will attract the public’s attention. NFL games played in prime time rate higher than the television industry’s best offerings.

This past week, Nielsen’s top-rated show was the Atlanta Falcons’ game against the Green Bay Packers on NBC, with more than 20 million viewers. No. 2 was Fox’s NFL postgame show, with 13 million viewers.

No. 5: ESPN’s telecast of the New Orleans Saints versus the Minnesota Vikings. No. 7: an NFL pregame show on NBC. No. 8: the Los Angeles Chargers versus the Denver Broncos on ESPN. No. 9: the Houston Texans versus the Cincinnati Bengals on the NFL Network.

Keep in mind that none of these teams play in the top television markets in this country, yet six of the top 10 shows this past week were NFL programming.

NBC had two of them, ESPN (owned by ABC) had two, and Fox and the NFL Network each had one. This means that multiple networks were benefiting from the NFL’s victories over their entertainment programming.

Sponsors and products looking for the most attention will gravitate toward the NFL. The league’s success also means that the price of NFL television packages will likely continue to rise ― enriching the league, franchises and players.

The NFL also benefits from “loss leader” bidding. Networks will pay more in rights fees than they can recoup in advertising so they can continue to promote their other programming before wide audiences and build their Monday-through-Friday prime-time ratings. Fox used this formula to transform from a marginal network into one of the big four. When CBS lost NFL football for a series of years, the network dropped to fourth place.

The dominant NFL television ratings drive revenue for the league in other ways. Fantasy football has become a passion, with as many as 45 million people playing every week. NFL memorabilia and clothing are ubiquitous and are not worn solely to games. Women are playing an increasing role in the NFL rage. The audience for many games is over 40% female, and many women are watching alone or with female friends.

The NFL’s once-a-week “event” schedule, rugged physical contact, synergy of television production innovation and quick bursts of action all fit modern appetites. College football is more popular than ever and serves as the farm system for the NFL, creating continuity in player recognition.

Major League Baseball had market dominance from the 1920s through the 1970s, but the NFL has replaced it as the most popular sport – and conquered other forms of entertainment while it was at it.

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The NFL has become quarterback-centric. The evolution of the modern pass-oriented offense puts a special premium on quarterback performance. The key for a team to get to the playoffs and compete for the Super Bowl is having a franchise quarterback as the team leader. This is a player a team can build around for the next ten to fifteen years, can with “because of” rather than “with”, and can elevate his level of play in adverse and challenging circumstances to come through at critical moments. These players are difficult to find in the draft and even harder to develop. The coaching and education of young quarterbacks at the NFL level could definitely improve. Otherwise, the 1999 Draft would not have had Tim Couch, Akili Smith and Cade McNown as top picks who had foreshortened careers.

Players who are drafted in the second round or below in the NFL Draft sign four-year contracts. So do first rounders but a franchise can exercise an option for the fifth year at a pre-set figure. A second round draft selection can have his contract extended after three seasons. An extension gives an immediate signing bonus, leaves the fourth year salary intact and adds a number of future years to the contract. This gives Carr a chance to outearn players selected ahead of him in the 2014 Draft over a five year period. The signing bonus is guaranteed on signing and that money comes to the player in all circumstances unless the player is suspended for misconduct or voluntarily retires. The yearly salaries are normally not guaranteed for skill or injury. When the overall size of the Carr package is announced, the certainty of receiving the dollars depends on how many of the yearly salaries are guaranteed.

Derek Carr started for the Raiders his rookie year, a difficult adjustment to make from college football, and just got better and better his first three years. This has been the most important factor in the Oakland Raider resurgence after many losing seasons. At the end of the 2017 season, Carr’s contract would expire and he would become a free agent–this is a nightmarish scenario for the team.

Franchise quarterback contract negotiations are normally conducted in a collegial and non-confrontational manner. Teams value the player, and a Quarterback who has found a productive home wants to stay. The exception to this in the last two years has been QB Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins. Teams can one free agent from moving by exercising the franchise tag. Cousins is now in his second year of franchising-receiving a one-year contract for the average of the top five players at his position. This figure puts him at roughly $25 million in salary. To discourage teams from misusing the tag, if Cousins would be franchised again next year the figure would move to over $35 million. The Raiders are avoiding this kind of dissonance.

The Raiders are making an astute move in extending Carr’s contract.The numbers may appear large, but every new contract sets trends and the Lions QB Matthew Stafford will probably exceed it soon.It locks in their most important player for the future and provides stability. It sends a message to younger players that the team will reward achievement at a high level. The signing sends a message to Raider fans that even though the NFL has voted to allow the franchise to move to Las Vegas, whatever years the Raiders remain in Oakland prior to their stadium being ready in Las Vegas, the team will have it’s top star intact. The signing also ensures that as the team moves to Las Vegas, its’ new fans will have a major star to root for. This contract is a great example of win-win negotiations.

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Chronic traumatic encephalopathy is an insidious condition caused by multiple blows to the head. As it progresses the personality of the sufferer changes and mood swings and depression follow. Memory loss, inability to hold a job, and the breakup of families can ensue. Ultimately suicide may occur. The suicides of former players Dave Duerson and Junior Seau brought this to public attention.

The largest group of NFL players affected was the linemen. They make up the largest group of players, but there is another reason for their prevalence. Each time an offensive lineman hits a defensive lineman at the inception of a football play, it creates a low-level subconcussive event. An offensive lineman who plays HS, college and pro football could leave the game with 10,000 subconcussive hits. None of these may be diagnosed, as concussions and the athlete may be unaware of the severity of the hits. The aggregation of thousands of low level hits to the head may be worse in their impact on the brain than getting knocked unconscious three times.

I started campaigning in the early 90’s for more urgency in studying and addressing this issue. I would watch my NFL clients lying on the field knocked out and knew intuitively it must have long term consequences. We held the first Concussion Conference in 1994 in Newport Beach with leading neurologists like Dr. Robert Cantu, Dr. Julian Bailes and Dr. Kevin Guskewiecz presenting their findings to a group of my NFL clients. We issued a White Paper with specific suggestions for prevention, from rules changes to helmetry and sent it to NFL teams and the League Office–there was no response. We teamed with Dr. Keith Black for another. In 2005 and 2006, Dr. Tony Strickland, The Concussion Institute, Warren Moon and I held conferences with the same neurologists and Dr. Bennet Omalu and David Hovda. It was reported that three or more concussions seemed to trigger an exponentially higher risk of depression, ALS, Alzheimers, Dementia, and CTE.

The existential threat to the continued play of football, hockey, field hockey, and soccer are the concussions. If 50% of the mothers in this country understand these facts and tell their teenage boys “We will support you in playing any sport, but not tackle football or hockey”, it will not kill those sports. But it will change the socioeconomic makeup of the players–the same people who box and fight in UFC, knowing the risk, but needing to escape economic circumstances–will still play. Fandom and viewership of a sport are dependent on some percentage of the audience having played the sport themselves.

I love football, but the concussions are a ticking time bomb and undiagnosed health epidemic. Tomorrow’s article will focus on methods to mitigate this threat.

New York Times

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